Does China Matter? A Reassessment
By Phar Kim Beng
Founder/Chair
Strategic Indo-Pacific Arena
Strategicpipa.com
Twitter: @indo_pan
Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/StrategicPIPA/
Dr. Gerald Segal used to be the head of the Asian security program at the International Institute of Strategic Studies (IISS) in London. Always amicable, friendly and approachable, yet he lost his battle to cancer in the mid 1990s, however. This book was written to commemorate him in the most profound and significant way: Does China really matter?
Some of the contributors in the book do not believe so. This is partly due to China’s low contributions to a wide spectrum of issues. China does not have any powerful allies; unlike the United States. China’s domestic consumption is not as high as those in the United States, despite its massive demography. China has also been reliant on the world on its cheap, and occasionally, low-quality exports. Indeed, China is not what Robert Zoellick, the former president of the World Bank, called a “responsible stakeholder.” While it contributes to international peacekeeping troops, it is not a key player in international security; not unless it is first enlisted by the United States, the European Union (EU).
But, one must remember that this book was written in mid 1990s. The dynamics of international relations have changed. China has changed too. Dramatically one might add, if not spectacularly. China has taken on more responsibilities across a wide menu of issues. It is a key participant in talks on Climate Change; as it is on the denuclearization of Iran. China is also exercising various leadership positions, in the development sector beyond the Bretton Woods institutions.
The Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) has been formed. China is also embarking on a Belt and Road endeavors, all of which will connect different parts of the world, leading them ultimately to the coastal areas of China, if not hinterland of China proper, though one should note while 800 million Chinese have been lifted out of poverty over the last forty years, there are 600 million more Chinese that live in abject poverty. The “Long March” of China continues.
In this sense, it is not incorrect to read this book in relation to David Shambaugh’s “China As A Partial Power”. Or, perhaps the works of Michael Shulman, even James Palmer, or Evan Osnos. They are not cynics of China per se but they understand the complexities of Chinese politics and history. The structural dynamics of China are one of ups and downs. They are cyclical. If politics form the “core of China”, as President Xi Jinping, the leader for life, insists it must, then the scholarship of Professor Wang Gung Wu cannot be ignored too. China may rise and fluctuate at varying periods and times. This pandemic has shown the vulnerability of China to a global economy that has become seized by it too, even though China has managed to avoid a recession, for now.
